Abstract EN:

The consociational democracy system in Lebanon is no longer capable of avoiding and managing crises for many reasons that are internal and external. Among these reasons are the changes in the elites (especially of the Maronites, Sunnis and Shiites) and their characteristics, the important demographic development and the modification of the confessional ratios, the transformation of the “veto right” into a hampering factor in every critical aspect of the political life, and the excess in the armed Hezbollah’s power. To these factors are added the external pressures and the weakness of national consenses towards the region’s axes and conflicts. Nevertheless, given its success in freezing the political system and its shares, given the institutionalization of vertical divisions on the basis of their exclusive representation of political groupings, and given the attachment of most forces to the power-sharing principle, consociationalism cannot be overcome easily. This by itself is a sign of both its strength and weakness: It does not function properly, but it cannot be overcome. In fact, all confessional political forces, consider it a guarantee to block any attempt by one ruling alliance at imposing choices and decisions. They also fear that any discussion over radical reforms might open the way to reconsidering the confessional quota system and its freezed formulas, which will create tensions and confrontations between the concerned groups. The absence of alternatives in the meantime does not eliminate the need for reforming political institutions, nor the necessity of discussing issues which could attenuate acute crises and enhance the performance of the regime.