Analyse de la fragilite financiere des menages. France, annees 1980
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Abstract EN:
The rapid growth of household indebtedness during the 1980's in france together with an important increase of financial default may constitute a cause for concern. A survey concerning credit supply and an econometric analysis of the level of credit rationing allow us to conclude that credit rationing is persisting in france, in spite of a rapid development of the credit granted on some specific segments of the credit market. A survey concerning credit demand grounded on the "life cycle theory" makes it possible to observe a loosening of credit constraints but not their complete elimination. An econometric analysis which was carried out for the french case (1980's) makes it possible to observe that the financial frailty of private households, approached with financial default rates is mainly due to the decrease of inflation rates which characterizes that period, but not to the rise of private households leverage.
Abstract FR:
La montee des niveaux d'endettement des menages francais peut constituer un sujet d'inquietude pour les autorites, car on observe conjointement une forte hausse de l'impaye contentieux, au cours des annees 1980. Un bilan des travaux theoriques concernant l'offre de credit, suivi d'une estimation econometrique du degre de rationnement du credit permettent de conclure dans un premier temps que ce rationnement persiste en france. Malgre un developpement rapide des credits octroyes sur certains segments du marche du credit. Un bilan des travaux theoriques et empiriques de la demande de credit, fonde sur la theorie du cycle de vie, permet d'observer un relachement des contraintes a l'endettement des menages, mais non leur disparition. Une etude econometrique, menee pour le cas francais (annees 1980), permet d'observer que la fragilite financiere des menages, approchee par les taux d'impayes contentieux, est surtout due a la desinflation qui caracterise la periode, et non a la montee des niveaux d'endettement.