Abstract EN:

The ambition of this research work is to analyze, in a comprehensive way, the short and medium term economic fluctuations in the developing countries of the MENA region. We will first analyze the cyclic likeness between the different MENA countries; in this sense, we will be mostly interested in the shape of the circumstantial cycle, notably in terms of length and size of the phases, through the configuration of an algorithm of identification. Thereafter we will try to clarify the sources of the economic fluctuations in the context of general equilibrium dynamic and stochastic model which applies to the case of Tunisia in order to reproduce the cyclic features of the economy in which the external shocks are assimilated to a mechanism of amplification of the sources of the economic fluctuations. Tunisia is at the same time a partner in the MENA region and undergoes symmetrical shocks in the region and the rest of the world. The Tunisian economy faces three different stochastic shocks: two external shocks of energy price and the world interest rate, and an internal shock of global productivity of the factors. We will finally approach the issue of the importance of the contributions of the external and internal shocks as explanatory elements of the short and medium term fluctuations in a developing country like Tunisia. We will introduce a structural VAR model to validate the theoretical (DSEG) one. Then, we will proceed to make a comparative analysis of the sources behind the internal and external fluctuations in the MENA region through an in panel VAR.