Analyse macro-economique de l'evolution de l'emploi, basee sur les comportements micro-economiques : le cas du cameroun
Institution:
Paris 1Disciplines:
Directors:
Abstract EN:
The purpose of this research is to find out suitable conditions for migration in ldcs to be a success. It is argued that the stark's theory on migration does not go deeper into the question. If only the family (excluding the migrant) was placed at the center of the decision of migration, then the condition of success of migration would be that the urban income be greater than the cost of migration. Such an inequality could hold even if the difference between urban and rural income was negative. This could happen in the case the contribution of the migrant to the rural output was insignificant. The migration could therefore be an involuntary one, and the migrant might not remit. In another hand, if the decision of migration was an individual rational choice of the migrant, that does not take into account the interest of the rural family, the later could not give financial support to the former during the urban period of unemployment. For migration to be a success, that is the migrant agrees to migrate, and to remit once he has found an urban job, and his family engages to give him financial support, both the migrant and his rural family may cooperate. Such a cooperation will lead to a success if the cost of migration (c) is less than a threshold (c*), or the part of the cost supported by the migrant (a) is less than a threshold (a*). C* and a* depend on many variables, among which the rural and urban incomes, the rural family size, the part of the cost supported by the migrant in the first case, or the total cost of migration in the second case. The theory does not say which of the conditions (c<c*) or (a<a*) is relevant. Empirical test based on a sample of 359 migrants, who were observed in yaounde (cameroon), have shown that the condition (a<a*) was the good one. The tests do more, by finding through a probit model estimation the way how the relevant variables influence the threshold a*.
Abstract FR:
Cette these essaie de reconcilier les points de vue de todaro et de stark sur la migration dans les pvd, par l'integration des motivations individuelles dans les comportements de groupe, et recherche les conditions de succes de la migration. Selon le premier, la decision de migrer est individuelle. La condition de succes de la migration est alors un ecart de revenu ville-campagne positif. Cependant, la famille du migrant peut ne pas le soutenir financierement pendant la periode de recherche d'un emploi urbain. Selon le second, la migration est une decision prise par la famille du migrant. Une condition de succes est que le revenu urbain soit plus grand que le cout de migration. Cette inegalite peut etre realisee meme lorsque le revenu rural est plus grand que le revenu urbain du migrant, si par exemple ce dernier a une contribution negligeable au produit rural. Dans un tel contexte, la migration peut etre involontaire. Le migrant pourrait alors refuser de transferer des fonds a sa famille. La migration est percue dans cette these comme une entente entre le migrant et sa famille, dans leurs interets respectifs. Le migrant espere obtenir en ville un revenu relatif plus eleve, alors que sa famille attend de lui un transfert de fonds. Cette cooperation se fera avec succes si le cout de migration (c) ne depasse pas un certain seuil c*, ou si la part des couts supportee par le migrant (a) ne depasse pas un seuil a*. Ces seuils sont des fonctions de plusieurs variables dont le revenu rural, le revenu urbain, la taille de la famille rurale, la repartition des couts, ou le cout de migration. La formulation theorique ne permet pas de choisir entre les conditions (c<c*) ou (a<a*). Le choix est fait au moyen de tests de validite effectues sur un echantillon de 359 migrants observes a yaounde (cameroun). Ces tests permettent de retenir le seuil a*. Une estimation par un modele probit determine les influences des variables explicatives sur le seuil de succes a*.