Crises economiques et conventions d evaluation- un developpement des intuitions keynesiennes
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Abstract EN:
The concept of crisis upheld here is based on the keynesian principles of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, on the principle of evaluation (monetary by necessity) on the other hand. Crisis then becomes a break in the "monetary economy of production", a break which is the result of the disappearance of the convention of evaluation, itself linked, in the short term, firstly to the concrete process of effective demand and, secondly to the financial sensitivity intrinsic to the productive system considered, and in the long term, to gains in productivity and changes concerning income distribution. The first part of this work re-interprets the multiplier theory which acquires meaning only in so far as there exists a concrete process of rationing (to the exclusion of all "logical multiplier"). It forces one to a new reading of the neo-cambridgian theses of distribution to bring out the financial market's pivotal role : that there can be, associated with any productive systel, a profile of financial sensitivity which conditions the triggering of crises. Lastly, the rule of liquidity preference is reconsidered, a concept which is exclusively micro-economic, expressing an arbitrage between bonds and money. The second part puts into perspective our concept of crisis with the main theories of growth and cycles. The third part reconsiders the "great depression" of the xixth century from the point of view argued in part i and part ii.
Abstract FR:
Le concept de crises ici defendu se fonde sur les principes keynesiens d incertitude et d evaluation (necessairement monetaire). La crise devient alors rupture dans l economie monetaire de production, resultant d une disparition de la convention d evaluation, elle-meme liee; a court terme au processus concret de la demande effective d une partn a la sensibilite financiere intrinseque au systeme productif d autre part, a long terme aux gains de productivite et aux changements quant a la repartition du revenu. La premiere partie reinterprete la theorie du multiplicateur qui ne prend snes que dans un processus concret de rationnement de l offre (a l exclusion de tout "multiplicateur logique"). Elle opere une relecture des theses neo-cambridgiennes sur la repartition pour mettre en evidence le role pivot du marche fina ncier : a tout systeme productif est associable un profil de sensibilite financiere qui conditionne le declenchement des crises. Elle reconsidere enfin le statut de la preference pour la liquidite, concept exclusivement microeconomique exprimant un arbitrage monnaie-titres que keynes n a pas contextualise dans les situations de crise, c est a dire d incertitude radicale. Une deuxieme partie met en prespective le concept de crise ainsi fonde avec les theories reelles de la croissance et du cycle d une part, les theories monetaires du cycle court et des crises d autre part, les analyses des mouvements longs enfin. La troisieme partie constitue uen relecture des cycles juglar et de la "grande depression" de la fin du xixeme siecle a la lumiere de la theorie du declenchement des crises precedemment degagee.